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Australia says the iron ore market is at the bottom.

The world's largest exporter of iron ore claims that the market is already at the bottom, and iron ore prices are expected to recover steadily next year.

In its quarterly outlook report released Wednesday, the Australian Ministry of Industry and Science predicted that iron ore prices would average $60 in 2017 and then rise to $75 in 2020, driven by faster demand growth and slower supply growth.

Australia's exports will slow as Gina Rinehart's Roy Hill project in Pilbara is the last large mine under construction.

The ministry said iron ore was expected to rebound as high-cost producers pulled out of the market and world steel production rebounded. As Roy Hill achieves full-load production and producers in the Pilbara region achieve maximum production capacity, Australia's output and export growth will slow down significantly.

Next year it will fall to 8.02 billion tons. And iron ore will have 42 million tons of new supply to the shipping market. A short-term increase in net supply of iron ore will put pressure on prices.

The ministry raised Australia's iron ore exports to 762 million tons this year, compared with an earlier forecast of 748 million tons, as Rinehart-backed mines went into operation later this year. It will increase to 8.24 billion tons next year, and it will reach 9.28 billion tons by 2020.

Citibank also believes that Roy Hill's annual output of 55 million tons will have a huge impact on prices, and that the mine is the biggest source of new supply of iron ore.


2. the world's three largest mines increase iron ore production, and ball mill exports increase.

The production of iron ore in Vale hit a record high in a single quarter, and the ball mill ball consumption increased simultaneously. The world's largest iron ore producer recently released its third-quarter financial data. Its iron ore production reached 88.2 million tons, the highest in the company's history. Vale's new steel mine in Outer Mongolia uses ball mill steel balls produced by our company.

The increase in production capacity partly relieves the impact of falling iron ore prices on Vale performance. In the third quarter, the company realized a total revenue of $6.618 billion, a decrease of $467 million compared with the previous quarter, due to the decline in the real prices of iron ore powder, nickel, copper and pellets. The company estimates that the negative impact of falling iron ore prices on revenue is $281 million, but the increase in iron ore sales partially offsets the negative impact.

Australian mining giant Rio Tinto's iron ore output also increased rapidly in the third quarter. Rio Tinto reported that its iron ore shipments reached 91.3 million tons in the three months to September, up 17% from a year earlier. BHP Billiton, which is also in Australia, increased its iron ore production by 7% in the third quarter to 61 million tons. The ball mill's non-breaking and round steel balls are also a key factor in improving production.

Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton have significant cost advantages over other iron ore producers in China and around the world. The cash cost of Vale's C1 FOB iron ore powder in the third quarter fell further from $15.8 per ton in the previous quarter to $12.7 per ton.

Against this background, the three major mines in the world adopt the strategy of changing volume by price. Large mines currently under construction in Vale are still advancing. Taking the S111D project as an example, 75% of the total progress has been achieved in the construction of mines and factories, 50% of the total progress has been achieved in the construction of railway ports and 72% of the total progress has been achieved in the construction of railway feeder lines.

The Karajas Nanshan Iron Mine Project, S111D, is the largest mining project in the history of Vale, with a total investment of 19 billion US dollars and an annual output of 90 million tons. It is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2016. The amount of steel balls used in ball mills is also relatively large, and 60,000 tons of steel balls for ball mills are ordered from our company.

Fermuli, president and CEO of Brazilian mining giant Vale, said the company plans to expand its annual output from the current 340 million tons to 450 million tons through the S111D project.


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